As the NFL progre ses, and analytics have become more relied on in the game, teams are going for it on fourth down more than ever.In 2022, NFL teams averaged 1.36 fourth-down attempts per game, the second-highest rate going back to 1984, . The only year with a higher rate was a season ago, when teams averaged 1.46 fourth-down attempts per game.And the decisions to go for it have been made for good reason. Succe s rates also rank among the highest in league history. Teams succeeded on fourth-down tries at a 50.7 percent rate in 2022, the ninth-highest succe s rate going Tyler Ott Jersey back to 1984. Of the top 10 all-time highest fourth-down succe s rates, four have come in the past five years.That doesn't mean every team has embraced the philosophy of going for it on fourth down consistently. And, in fact, the numbers suggest teams still aren't nearly as aggre sive as they should be on fourth downs. With the Chiefs and the Eagles set to face off in a Super Bowl, winning the game could come down to which team is more likely to make the right decision in those pivotal downs, and how they choose to approach play-calling in those moments.MORE: How do the numbers suggest Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni fared in making those decisions during the 2022 regular season? Here's a look at the data:Right decisionsThe numbers behind making decisions on fourth down are quite extensive. Using expected points added, The Sporting News looked back at the best fourth-down decisions to make based on distance and field position since 2013.Using that data and full play-by-play stats from the 2022 regular season, it's po sible to determine when coaches made the same decision the model would have made "the right call" or gone against the model's recommendation. The model does not take into account score or time of game, both of which are important and can have a great impact on a decision, but looking at the totality of the 2022 regular season still offers plenty of data points to evaluate coaching decisions.Based on the model's decisions for when to go for it, punt or kick, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni made "the right call" a league-leading 85.6 percent of the time. Chiefs coach Andy Reid, however, sided with the model only 69.2 percent of the time, third lowest in the NFL.MORE: From there, there are two different ways to look at the decisions made by coaches. The first is to look at the model recommendation first and then compare it to the decision made by the coach. For example, if a model says to go for it, how often did a coach follow that suggestion.During the season, in situations where the model recommended going for it, only the Cardinals (69.6 percent) went for it more often than the Eagles (69 percent), while the Chiefs went for it at just 28.9 percent, fourth-lowest in the NFL. Reid's Chiefs were the only team in the NFL to be a perfect 100 percent when told to punt the ball away, while the Eagles made the right call on punts the third most at 98.1 percent (Patriots were second at 98.6 percent).The second way to look at the fourth-down decisions is by evaluating what a coach did, and comparing that to how the model's decisions. So if a coach decides to go for it, this would look at whether the model agreed with the decision.When teams made the decision to go for it, the model agreed with the Chiefs 91.7 percent of the time, second behind the Bills at 92.3 percent. The model agreed with Sirianni's decisions to go for it 90.6 percent, third-best in the NFL. However, the model rarely agreed with Reid on field goals. Only on 34.6 percent of the Chiefs' field-goal tries did the model suggest it was the correct decision. The model agreed with 65.2 percent of Philadelphia's field-goal decisions.As for punting, once again, the model agreed with the Eagles significantly more than Kansas City. The Chiefs, in particular, were more disconnected with the model, with it agreeing with Reid's decision only 81.1 percent of the Jake Curhan Jersey time, the third-lowest in the NFL. The model agreed with 91.1 percent of Sirianni's calls to send out the punting unit, which ranked 10th.It is worth noting that while the Chiefs did not go for it on fourth down as often, only the Rams (78.9 percent) were more succe sful on fourth down tries than Kansas City (75 percent). Even the Eagles, who more often made the correct call to go for it, ranked fourth in the NFL at 68.8 percent.But the difference in making the right call to go for it vs. to punt resulted in 13 more total fourth-down conversions than the Chiefs, which means 13 more plays that either resulted in touchdowns or first downs and kept drives alive. And in a game like the Super Bowl, every drive will have immense importance, making each fourth-down decision all the more important.EPA and WPAJust because Ugo Amadi Jersey the right decision was made does not guarantee that the outcome will help the team. If teams do a poor job on punt coverage, mi s field goals or get sacked on fourth downs, even the right decision can hurt a team's chances of winning a game.Two metrics can provide insight into how a play impacted a game: expected points added (EPA) and win probability added (WPA). Both plays only look at the difference in expected points or win probability added from one play to the next. So while a 1-yard touchdown run might actually put six points on the board, the expected points from a team's 1-yard line would already be high, and in 2022, a 1-yard touchdown would only add on average 2.61 expected points.When it came to fourth down plays, only the Seahawks (.269 EPA) gained more average expected points than the Eagles (.167), while the Chiefs ranked toward the middle of the field at 12th (.032). All told, the Eagles expected to add 18.5 points during the regular season from how their fourth downs played out, still trailing just Seattle's 32.5. Kansas City ranked 13th with 2.91 EPA.IYER: Part of Seattle's succe s came from field goals and special teams on punts, however, whereas much of the Eagles' succe s came when going for it on fourth. When teams went for it on fourth down, the Eagles added the second most EPA at 27.1, trailing just the Rams' 28.7. The Chiefs ranked fourth at 12.9.When it comes to win probability, once again, Seattle leads the way both in average and total at .017 WPA per game and 2.09 total during the season. The Eagles check in at eighth in average (.008) and ninth in total (.88), adding nearly one win in 2022 based on how their fourth-down plays went. The Chiefs ranked 25th in WPA on fourth-down plays both in average (.00007) and total (.006).However, when the two teams decided to go for it on fourth down, their total EPA jumped quite a bit. The Eagles were second in the NFL behind the Lions in WPA on fourth downs when going for it (.658 to Detroit's .920), while Kansas City was fifth (.526).Close-range field goals and fourth-and-1 puntsThere are certain decisions that should be more cut-and-dry than others. One of them is always going for it inside the opponents' 5-yard line. Another is always going for it on fourth-and-1.When teams are deep inside the opponent's territory, the expected points added are significantly higher than anywhere else on the field. This, of course, makes sense. Teams are closer to the end zone, which makes field goals easier and makes it le s distance for a team to drive to score a touchdown.But too often teams inside the opponent's 5 will get stopped and decide to settle for three points. There are certainly scenarios where it makes sense to do so. If a field goal would put a team up an additional score, e.g. a nine-point lead vs. a six-point lead, or if three points is needed to tie the game up. But overall, the numbers suggest the decision just to go for it on fourth down not even guaranteeing a conversion is worth more than a field goal. A fourth-and-4 from an opponent's 4 is worth an average of 3.32 expected points added. A fourth-and-1 from the 1 is worth 4.79 expected points added. A field goal attempt from the 4 is worth 2.35.SUPER BOWL PICKS: | The reason? If a conversion fails, the opponent is still pinned back in their own zone, giving the defense plenty of chances to force a punt, or even a safety. A field goal isn't guaranteed to be made, and even if it is, the opponent will then start with better field position that gives them a higher EPA based on their starting point.The numbers thus suggest anywhere inside an opponent's 5 should be an automatic suggestion to "go for it." In fact, TSN's analysis suggest even a fourth-and-9 from the 9 is worth going for it. But for this, we're sticking inside the 5. John Mitchell Jersey During the regular season, the Eagles attempted only two field goals on nine total fourth downs inside the 5. They scored a league-leading five touchdowns on those plays, . On six plays, the Chiefs attempted three field goals and scored two touchdowns. If the Eagles are inside the 5, don't expect to see Jake Elliott come out and kick a field goal.Then there's fourth-and-1 punts. The data suggests that from any place on the field, teams should attempt a fourth-and-1 conversion. Why? Because since 2013, teams are converting on 65.5 percent of fourth-down tries. Running the ball has turned into a succe s rate of 69.4 percent.MORE: When teams are deep in their own zone, a punt isn't likely to flip the field enough to make up for the difference in value of a succe sful conversion since it would still likely keep an opponent close enough to the end zone that their chances of scoring are higher. And converting on fourth down around the middle of the field or in field goal range increases the chances of a team scoring a touchdown, which makes it more worthwhile than booting a field goal.Sirianni has embraced his powerful offensive line and the rushing ability of Jalen Jamarco Jones Jersey Hurts to convert on fourth downs. No team has punted the ball fewer times on fourth-and-1 in 2022 than the Eagles, who have booted the ball away on only 6.7 percent of attempts. On fourth-and-1, they have run the ball 86.7 percent of the time. Hurts has been the ball-carrier on nine of the 13 rush attempts from the line.The Chiefs, however, are much more apt to punt on fourth-and-1. During the regular season, the Chiefs punted the ball on fourth-and-1 50 percent of the time. Only the Saints (58.3 percent) punted it away more. Mahomes has not been used to quarterback sneak from a yard out at all in 2022, and Kansas City's 14.3 percent run rate on fourth-and-1 is below all but the Jets (11.8 percent) and the Patriots (0 percent). Their pa sing rate of 21.4 percent ranks tied for 11th.Reid certainly might opt to be more aggre sive in the Super Bowl than in the regular season. But when it comes to avoiding the some of the most conservative decisions in the game, the numbers suggest Sirianni is significantly more likely to push the throttle than Reid.